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Table 1 Parameters used in simulation a

From: Simulating the drug discovery pipeline: a Monte Carlo approach

Probability of achieving Hit to Lead milestone

0.80

Probability of achieving Lead Optimization milestone

0.75

Probability of achieving Preclinical Development milestone

0.85

Percentage of follow-on Hit to Lead projects

0.25

Percentage of chemistry-driven Hit to Lead projects

0.5

Percentage of prioritized Lead Optimization projects

0

Target no. Hit to Lead CHEMISTS (chemistry-driven) per team

2

Target no. Hit to Lead BIOLOGISTS (chemistry-driven) per team

3

Target no. Hit to Lead CHEMISTS (biology-driven) per team

1

Target no. Hit to Lead BIOLOGISTS (biology-driven) per team

3

Target no. Hit to Lead CHEMISTS (follow-on) per team

2

Target no. Hit to Lead BIOLOGISTS (follow-on) per team

1

Target no. Lead Optimization CHEMISTS per team

4

Target no. Lead Optimization BIOLOGISTS per team

4

No. simultaneous Lead Optimization projects supported by DMPK

0

Percent impact on timeline by DMPK support

0.1

Target cycle time (months) to achieve Lead Optimization

18

Target cycle time (months) to achieve Preclinical Development

24

Group size at 75% FTE efficiency

20

Group size at 50% FTE efficiency

40

  1. aSee Experimental section for a detailed explanation of the control variables.